Vulnerability Assessment

Prioritizing tree species for conservation and management in changing times

The prioritization framework aims to assess the relationship for each species between the severity of threats (such as insects and disease) and two intrinsic vulnerability dimensions (Sensitivity and Low Adaptive Capacity) associated with the threats. The Sensitivity and Low Adaptive Capacity vulnerability dimensions each consists of multiple species attributes, such as rarity and dispersal ability.

SUMMARY:

A variety of threats, most importantly climate change and insect and disease infestation, will increase the risk that forest trees could experience population-level or species-level extinction. Species, however, differ in important traits such as life-history strategies and population dynamics, which could drive widely varying responses to potential threats. To address this challenge, I led a national effort to implement a framework to prioritize forest tree species for conservation, management and monitoring in the face of multiple threats.

The project is data-driven and guided by expert opinion, allowing the quantitative grouping of species into vulnerability classes that may require different management and conservation strategies. It is applicable at multiple scales and across any area for which relevant data exist. It also encompassed extensive data collection for approximately 400 tree species native to the continental United States, including insect and disease threat severity, and potential climate change risk.

LINKS:

Potter, K.M., M.E. Escanferla, R.M. Jetton, G. Man, and B.S. Crane. 2019. Prioritizing the conservation needs of United States tree species: Evaluating vulnerability to forest insect and disease threats. Global Ecology and Conservation. 18(2019):e00622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00622.

Potter, K.M., M.E. Escanferla, R.M. Jetton, and G. Man. 2019. Insect and disease threats to United States tree species and geographic patterns of their potential impacts. Forests. 10(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/f10040304.

Potter, K.M., B.S. Crane, and W.W. Hargrove. 2017. A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change. New Forests. 48(2):275-300. DOI: 10.1007/s11056-017-9569-5.

Hastings, J.M., K.M. Potter, F.H. Koch, M. Megalos, and R.M. Jetton. 2017. Prioritizing conservation seed banking locations for imperiled hemlock species using multi-attribute frontier mapping. New Forests. 48(2):301-316.DOI: 10.1007/s11056-017-9575-7.

Westwood, M., A. Frances, G. Man, D. Pivorunas, and K.M. Potter. 2017. Coordinating the IUCN Red List of North American tree species: A special session at the USFS gene conservation of tree species workshop. Gene Conservation of Tree Species—Banking on the Future. Proceedings of a Workshop. R.A. Sniezko, G. Man, V. Hipkins, K. Woeste, D. Gwaze, J.T. Kliejunas, and B.A. McTeague, tech. coords. Chicago, Illinois, May 16-19, 2016. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-963. Portland, Oregon: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. pp. 12-23.

CONTACT: Kevin Potter, kevin.potter@usda.gov or (919) 549-4071